October's Political Intelligence

By Rafaella De Freitas

Escaping the deadline of the 31st of October, another month of Brexit negotiations has passed and what happens next remains unclear. 

After being judged impossible, on the 17th of October Boris Johnson announced the successful negotiation of a new Withdrawal Agreement Bill  (WAB) between the UK and the EU. The new agreement replaces May’s controversial Irish Backstop, which would effectively bind the UK to the EU indefinitely in order to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and also removed the level playing field recommendations from the legally binding text.

The PM first introduced his Withdrawal Agreement at the beginning of the month, and MPs were occupied with assessing the impact of a no deal exit, as well as understanding the conditions of the new agreement until Parliament was prorogued on the 8th of October. For the purposes of confidentiality, MPs were not given access to the text of the legal text until an agreement was reached with the EU, which sparked frustration amongst the Commons. Shadow Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Keir Starmer MP said:

"The Government has presented the EU with a 44 page legal text, a seven page memorandum and a four page letter. In this House we've seen the memorandum and the letter but not the full legal text. And frankly that's not good enough, because without the full legal text we're being asked to guess what the detail of the Government's proposals actually are. Or worse, we're being asked to take the Prime Minister's word on it."

After an agreement with the EU, the Bill was introduced to the House of Commons on Super Saturday (19th October) for the primary reading, and was subsequently approved in the second reading by 329 votes to 299 on the following Tuesday (22nd October). However, this came with a defeat to Johnson’s agenda, as the Commons voted against the PM’s proposed bill timetable, which allowed only two days for the Bill to be debated. Following this defeat, debates on the Withdrawal Bill were suspended until a calendar was agreed. 

Following a cross-party amendment known as the Benn act, which made it a legal requirement for the PM to request an extension to Brexit if a deal was not agreed on by the 19th of October, Johnson sent two letters - but only signed one - to the EU. One letter requested an extension, and the other explained the government does not want an extension.

On Monday morning (28th), 27 EU ambassadors met in Brussels to judge the fate of Mr. Johnson’s extension request. The meeting concluded with a delayed Brexit deadline - EU representatives granted a further extension until the end of January 2020, with the condition that if the UK Parliament approves the Withdrawal Agreement Bill prior to that date, the UK will leave the EU on the 1st of the month following the Bill agreement. Adding another term to the Brexit dictionary, the ‘flextension’ date will not require an EU summit to be approved, but instead will be signed off via written procedure. Although approved, it was met with hesitation by France’s Mr Macron, who argued for a shorter extension period in order to pressure the UK Parliament to vote on the PM deal. However, with a hesitation to impose on Parliamentary sovereignty - one of the big Brexit justifications - the EU chose to grant the time that was requested by the PM.

Adding another step to the EU exit process, the PM’s call for a General Election was rejected on Monday (28th), failing to gain the necessary two-thirds support of the House of Commons. Tired of trying to get his deal approved, the PM sees a General Election as the only was to solve the Brexit deadlock. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond noted:

“The idea now that we would halt all this and have a general election, frankly appalls me. I think the government is trying to create a narrative that parliament is blocking Brexit and therefore we need an election. But that is simply untrue. Parliament signaled very clearly last week that it was prepared to press on with the Brexit Bill, provided it has a reasonable timetable to do so.”

Jeremy Corbyn explained that Labour’s support for a General Election has been contingent on getting no deal off the table, and accepted the Brexit delay as satisfying that condition, stating support for a December election despite unease from labour MPs. Since 1802, Parliament has only held four December general elections, the last one being in 1923. Winter elections are unpopular due to the weather’s impacts on campaigning and turnout, which is unfavourable considering the high stakes of this election in particular. 

The Early Parliamentary General Election Bill will be voted later today in the House of Commons. In addition to Labour’s support, the Election is also backed by the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Liberal Democrats, dependant on the date. Each party has their own agenda: Johnson’s intentions include consolidating the Conservative’s presence in the Commons to have greater influence over Brexit, the last Labour Government was before the 2010 election and the SNP the Lib Dems remain opposed to Brexit and have their own policy agendas to push.promised Mr Johnson has signaled that he will continue pushing for a General Election, which is supported by the Scottish National Party. What happens next remains unclear: independent of the General Election, MPs still need to approve a deal to avoid crashing out. Until a Withdrawal Agreement is signed, the default remains leaving on the 31st January with no deal. If you are unsure of what this means, the Government released guidelines on preparing for no deal Brexit if you work in the creative industries.